By Elizabeth M. Whelan, Sc.D., M.P.H.
Posted: Friday, October 15, 2004

LETTER
Publication Date: October 15, 2004

Your Oct. 14 editorial "Infectious Politics" highlighted the role price controls, excessive regulation and the threat of litigation against vaccine makers played in creating our current public health nightmare: a critical shortage of influenza vaccine as we enter the annual flu season. Simply put, would-be flu vaccine makers face many disincentives and see very few incentives which would entice them into the arduous process of flu vaccine development.

One additional factor constantly threatens stability of a desirable inventory of flu shots: unpredictable consumer demand. This year with the shortage, the demand appears to be very high -- and supplies very low. (In the unlikely event that every American in the "high risk" categories now decides to seek a flu shot, we will have 185 million people chasing down about 50 million doses.)

Last year, given the early onset of flu season and some well-publicized deaths among children, the demand was high and we used all or nearly all of the 87 million doses available. But more typically, with officials simply guessing on how many people will want to be immunized against flu, we end up discarding more than 10 million doses (they cannot be used the next year, as flu strains change), wastage that threatens profitability. More effective public education about the serious threat posed by influenza and the health protection offered by flu shots, along with better techniques for predicting how many will seek immunization, with perhaps the additional safeguard of assured government "buy-back" of unused vaccine, would increase the odds of matching supply with demand.

Dr. Elizabeth M. Whelan
President
American Council on Science and Health, New York

Source Notes:  
The Wall Street Journal