"Take a deep breath: this is not an emergency," Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told Americans Wednesday. She was, of course, referring to the stunning announcement Tuesday that United Kingdom regulators had suspended operations at a Liverpool plant, halting production of some 50 million doses of influenza vaccine that were to provide protection for Americans during the upcoming flu season.
Dr. Gerberding was, understandably, trying to prevent panic. She wanted to avoid, or at least minimize, the stampede to physicians' offices by worried consumers who wanted to get their shot now -- before supplies were exhausted. And Dr. Gerberding sought to distinguish "high risk" (infants, toddlers, pregnant women, the elderly, health care workers and others) from "low risk" (the rest of us). All of this is perfectly in keeping with Gerberding's role as head of the CDC.
But we need to inject some reality here as well: while panic is to be avoided at all costs, the loss of nearly half of our nation's anticipated supply of influenza vaccine represents a potential health crisis for our nation.
Each year some 36,000 Americans die from influenza. Most of this mortality occurs in people in those "high risk" groups. But millions of other Americans become sick from influenza, suffer, lose time from work and other activities, and eventually get better.
The CDC webpage on how to prevent the flu states in bold letters "the single best way to prevent the flu is to get vaccinated each fall."
In a "normal" year this is true. However, it now appears that we will not even have enough vaccine to protect the 185 million Americans deemed high risk. As of this writing, the available supply of vaccine is about 54 million -- for a total population of nearly 300 million Americans.
This spells trouble. For those in the most vulnerable groups, the risk of contracting influenza will be more significant than in any other recent year -- because there will be a greater than normal number of individuals who are unvaccinated and infected. For this reason, it is more important than ever for high risk Americans to be vaccinated -- now.
While our federal public health officials seek to assure us that this is not an "emergency," the government messages are clearly contradictory. You can't tell a nation one day that it is urgent that all of us be vaccinated and then the next, when supplies are short, suggest it is no big deal to not be vaccinated.
Assuming that a substantial number of high risk Americans do get vaccinated, we will hopefully avoid a major increase in flu-related mortality. But with so many of us entering the flu season without immunity, we will inevitably see millions become ill, lose time from work and generally become less productive as the illness runs its course.
Perhaps some of the vaccine supply can be salvaged (it is not yet fully clear why the decision was made to suspend production and distribution).
But right now, it's time to do everything to protect yourself (and others) from influenza: wash your hands frequently; avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth; avoid contact with people who have the flu, and if you get it, stay home so you don't infect others.
And take a moment to reflect how much modern medical technology protects our health -- and how vulnerable we are without it.
