uncertainty

It was inevitable that Amazon, the tech company that has eaten up retail, has turned its eye to another field to disrupt, healthcare.

In medicine’s recent past, Dr. Welby could be counted on to dispense sage fatherly advice. Fast forward a decade or two, and Dr. Grey often lays out the options while addressing their and their patient’s angst.

What do you do when you have two expert opinions, one saying the probability is 60%, the other expert says its 80%? Even more perplexing, what if one opinion is likely and the other very likely?

I have spent a lot of my working life, attempting to understand and communicate risk and uncertainty. The first question by many patients is, what are my chances?

Many studies make use of self-reported behavior, nutritional studies asking what you are eating, or surveys asking about how much exercise you do.